UFC Fight Night predictions, picks and parries tonight
The UFC returns to Vegas after a hugely entertaining card in Austin, Texas.
This weekend is one of the best for betting on MMA. Between the UFC on Saturday and the PFL and Bellator fights on Friday, we have 38 fights we can bet on.
Hopefully Saturday will be a fruitful endeavor for all involved.
Arman Tsarukyan (-300) against Mateusz Gamrot (+240)
Very rarely do we see top prospects go head-to-head so early in their careers, but that’s exactly what we have between Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot. These two fighters are 38-3 combined in their MMA careers – both are incredibly top fighters and we are in for a treat.
It’s also master grapplers who headline tonight’s main card. This could be a place where the grappling is so top notch that no fighter even tries to grapple.
Tsarukyan is a five-game winner in a row with his last loss to current UFC lightweight No. 1 Islam Makhachev. Even that fight was very competitive and it’s entirely possible that Tsarukyan could be a future title holder in the 155-pound division.
Last time out against Joel Alvarez, he made it look like Alvarez didn’t even deserve to be there with him en route to a TKO win.
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Gamrot is 20-1 in his career and 3-1 in the UFC with three finishes. He absolutely went through UFC veteran Jeremy Stephens in 65 seconds. He’s a truly impressive athlete with wild wrestling fights that even the best grapplers find hard to get away from.
Gamrot as a big underdog is very interesting as his fight should be even with Tsarukyan. Tsarukyan has better kicks than Gamrot and has the power advantage. However, without Tsarukyan’s feints, this could stabilize things in terms of being able to control the octagon.
For reference, this line opened at -140/+120. The value is on Gamrot this weekend in a five-round battle. Neither fighter will tire and both have phenomenal durability.
Expect this fight to be an extremely competitive fight with no clear picks to actually win the fight. The competition could be a stalemate that leads to a decision with a slight value for Gamrot that shouldn’t be higher than +165.
UFC Fight Night Picks
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Neil Magny (+300) vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov (-420)
Neil Magny will fight another budding prospect in Shavkat Rakhomov in the UFC welterweight division. Rakhmonov is another guy who has just dominated the competition so far.
His 15-0 record includes eight wins by KO/TKO and seven submissions. Magny will easily be his toughest opponent yet. It’s also the first time Rakhmonov will be undersized in the UFC career.
Typically, he uses his 6-foot-1 frame to push opponents onto their back leg. This is the configuration that gives him full control of combat. From there, he can land heavy strikes that could result in knockouts or desperation attempts.
The fight will be very difficult to set up in this style against Magny. He likes to fight in close combat and is difficult to take down. Once shot, he was submitted by four opponents in his career, each by chokehold.
This is the only bet for which there is real value. Rakhmonov will face probably the best striker he has ever faced in his career. His kicks are great but against the 6-foot-3 Magny, it’s harder to envision another KO header.
For riskier bettors, a submission win in rounds two or three for Rakhmonob pays 11/1 on FanDuel.
UFC Fight Night Picks
- Rakhmonov wins by submission +420 (FanDuel)
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As usual, these betting odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at the time of writing.
TJ Brown -194 + Thiago Moises -265 + Tafon Nchuwki -128 + Paiva/Morozov GTD (-142) = +533 odds